SOVEREIGN RESEARCHBY PAVEL SOVEREIGN

SOVEREIGN RESEARCH / DELIVERED COMPUTE

Expectation Gap Board

Market View vs Physical Reality → Potential Expectation Gap

WACC / FinancingMONITORING

Market view

PAVEL INTERPRETATION: conditional question only. No dated market consensus or implied valuation has established a mismatch.

PAVEL INTERPRETATION · No linked evidence

Physical reality

Policy rates, deposits, cash spending and future commitments have different effects.

Potential expectation gap

NO CLEAR EXPECTATION GAP established as mispricing; candidate mechanism for future comparison.

Confidence: 65% · Next 1–4 quarters

B1-FED-20261006 · B1-ORCL-20261006 · B1-MU-20261006

NVIDIA · Vistra

CoolingMONITORING

Market view

PAVEL INTERPRETATION: conditional question only. No dated market consensus or implied valuation has established a mismatch.

PAVEL INTERPRETATION · No linked evidence

Physical reality

Qualified equipment and deployment gains need retained cash after all costs.

Potential expectation gap

NO CLEAR EXPECTATION GAP established as mispricing; candidate mechanism for future comparison.

Confidence: 65% · Next 1–4 quarters

B1-VRT-20261006 · B1-VRT-CDU-20261006 · B1-CW-20261006

Vertiv

Power GenerationMONITORING

Market view

PAVEL INTERPRETATION: conditional question only. No dated market consensus or implied valuation has established a mismatch.

PAVEL INTERPRETATION · No linked evidence

Physical reality

Future uprates and hedged generation cannot be treated as immediate repricing.

Potential expectation gap

NO CLEAR EXPECTATION GAP established as mispricing; candidate mechanism for future comparison.

Confidence: 65% · Next 1–4 quarters

B1-CEG-20261006 · B1-VST-20261006 · B1-PJM-AUCTION-20261006

Constellation Energy · Vistra

Delivered ComputeMONITORING

Market view

PAVEL INTERPRETATION: conditional question only. No dated market consensus or implied valuation has established a mismatch.

PAVEL INTERPRETATION · No linked evidence

Physical reality

Production use exists but representative fleet economics are not disclosed.

Potential expectation gap

NO CLEAR EXPECTATION GAP established as mispricing; candidate mechanism for future comparison.

Confidence: 65% · Next 1–4 quarters

B1-CW-20261006 · B1-MSFT-20261006 · B1-ORCL-20261006

NVIDIA · Arista Networks

Buildable MWMONITORING

Market view

PAVEL INTERPRETATION: conditional question only. No dated market consensus or implied valuation has established a mismatch.

PAVEL INTERPRETATION · No linked evidence

Physical reality

Permits, funding and connection conditions can move delivery dates.

Potential expectation gap

NO CLEAR EXPECTATION GAP established as mispricing; candidate mechanism for future comparison.

Confidence: 65% · Next 1–4 quarters

B1-TX-RULE-20261006 · B1-PJM-LOAD-20261006 · B1-TX-LETTER-20261006

Vertiv · Constellation Energy · Vistra