SOVEREIGN RESEARCHBY PAVEL SOVEREIGN

SOVEREIGN RESEARCH / DELIVERED COMPUTE

Buildable MW

Power capacity with a feasible path to construction and deployment.

Role in Delivered Compute Chain

Buildable capacity is distinct from announced and energized capacity.

  1. AI Demand
  2. CAPEX
  3. GPU / ASIC
  4. Foundry / Advanced Packaging
  5. HBM
  6. Servers
  7. Networking / Optical
  8. Rack Power / Cooling
  9. Data Centers
  10. Power Generation
  11. Grid / Interconnection
  12. Energized MW
  13. Delivered Compute
  14. AI Revenue
  15. Market Pricing

Current Pavel Judgment

Current State
CONSTRAINED
Direction
↑
Current Pavel Judgment
PJM and Texas evidence documents a gap between announced load and executable capacity. Buildable MW requires funded construction, applicable permits and executable power and interconnection agreements; no national total is inferred.
Confidence
84%
Probability
NOT YET COMMITTED
Last Material Change
2026-10-06T16:26:27.626Z
Last Updated
2026-10-06T16:26:27.626Z

Research Framework

Why It Matters
PJM and Texas evidence documents a gap between announced load and executable capacity. Buildable MW requires funded construction, applicable permits and executable power and interconnection agreements; no national total is inferred.
Demand Drivers
Demand and operating evidence in B1-TX-RULE-20261006, B1-TX-LETTER-20261006, B1-PJM-LOAD-20261006, B1-PJM-AUCTION-20261006
Supply Constraints
Execution limits and countervailing evidence in B1-PJM-FORECAST-20261006
What the Market Knows
The linked dated disclosures are public. No dated equity-consensus or implied-valuation baseline has been established; publicly disclosed is not equivalent to fully priced.
Potential Expectation Gap
NO CLEAR EXPECTATION GAP established as mispricing. Conditional research question: physical delivery and retained economics may differ from announced demand; test against dated market expectations before concluding.
What Would Change My Mind
Site-specific permits, funding, connection agreements and commissioning removing the cited regional gates; not another announcement.
Watch Next
Site-specific permits, funding, connection agreements and commissioning removing the cited regional gates; not another announcement.

Related Companies

Constellation Energy · Vertiv · Vistra

Related Evidence

Related Judgments

BASELINE COMMIT

Buildable MW

PJM and Texas evidence documents a gap between announced load and executable capacity. Buildable MW requires funded construction, applicable permits and executable power and interconnection agreements; no national total is inferred.

BASELINE INITIALIZATION · information cutoff: 2026-10-06. The event timestamp records the actual commitment.

Why it matters · INITIAL CANONICAL BASELINE

Previous: UNCOMMITTED → New: CONSTRAINED

Probability: NOT YET COMMITTED → NOT YET COMMITTED · Confidence: 84% · Horizon: Baseline cutoff 2026-10-06; next reported cycle and 1–4 quarters

Supporting evidence (4): B1-TX-RULE-20261006 · B1-TX-LETTER-20261006 · B1-PJM-LOAD-20261006 · B1-PJM-AUCTION-20261006

Counterevidence: B1-PJM-FORECAST-20261006

Committed judgment

Probability History

NO COMMITTED PROBABILITY HISTORY

No historical probabilities have been inferred or backfilled.

Latest Research Output